FC ST. Gallen 4-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yverdon Sport make the trip to kybunpark to face FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 9W 0D 1L at kybunpark — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at kybunpark than their overall form suggests.
Yverdon Sport's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport away from home this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in FC ST. Gallen's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Yverdon Sport in 86%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC ST. Gallen 0W, Yverdon Sport 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Yverdon Sport winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 73% and Yverdon Sport 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 60% | Yverdon Sport 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.72 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.262 / defence 0.933 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.784 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.338. FC ST. Gallen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 FC ST. Gallen games / 15 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 73% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 10%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Yverdon Sport 10.00. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | Yverdon Sport 86% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 73% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 59% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.72 / Yverdon Sport 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.262 / def 0.933 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.784 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Yverdon Sport xG
59%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
FC ST. Gallen 4 - 0 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 73% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
Record (1 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 0W | Draws 0 | Yverdon Sport 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC ST. Gallen's attack rating (1.26) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.78x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 51/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 3-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
73%
1.37
17%
6.00
10%
9.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.70
0.98
Yverdon Sport xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.00
17%
Draw
9.79
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
7%
15.15
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
1%
148.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 0.98 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 8W 3D 4L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yverdon Sport's form line: 4W 5D 6L from 15 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC ST. Gallen are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yverdon Sport.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 3.00 PPG from 7 outings (7W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.33 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Yverdon Sport in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 games (1.80 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 3.00 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 6 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
3
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 2, Yverdon Sport have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for FC ST. Gallen, 86% for Yverdon Sport — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC ST. Gallen and 57% for Yverdon Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 86% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 57% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Yverdon Sport 4-0 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.72 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.98 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yverdon Sport landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.78 / defence 1.20, drawn from 51/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 73% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 10%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 60%, Yverdon Sport 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.