FC ST. Gallen 4-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
kybunpark plays host to FC ST. Gallen versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen at kybunpark this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's away record: 2W 0D 2L from 4 road trips in Super League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for FC ST. Gallen, 1.40 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 70% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 50% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.90 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.182 / defence 0.921 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.984 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.406. Data: 45 FC ST. Gallen games / 8 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 50% | Draw 27% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 23%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4.35. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 80% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 50% | Draw 27% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.90 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.182 / def 0.921 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.984 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
FC ST. Gallen 4 - 0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 50% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC ST. Gallen's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack (0.98x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 45/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.69
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.17
1.27
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
4%
28.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.27 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 3D 2L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 4W 0D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 3.00 PPG; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
FC ST. Gallen
0
Draws
0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
From 3 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 3, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for FC ST. Gallen, 50% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC ST. Gallen and 75% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 50% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 75% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4-0 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.90 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.27 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.18 / defence 0.92 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 50% | Draw 27% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 23%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 50%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.