FC ST. Gallen 2-2 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 meet at Kybunpark in Super League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at Kybunpark: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kybunpark this season.
FC Basel 1893's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in FC ST. Gallen's favour (2.40 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Basel 1893 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Basel 1893 — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 68% and FC Basel 1893 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 68% | FC Basel 1893 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.81 xG and FC Basel 1893 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.182 / defence 1.180 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.103 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.586. FC Basel 1893 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing FC ST. Gallen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 FC ST. Gallen games / 28 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 35% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 44%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.86 | Draw 4.76 | FC Basel 1893 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC ST. Gallen (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Basel 1893 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 35% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.81 / FC Basel 1893 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.182 / def 1.180 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.103 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.586 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
2.07
FC Basel 1893 xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen 2 - 2 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 35% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 44% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.18x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.10x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
35%
2.89
21%
4.78
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.88
2.07
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.71
Clean Sheet
13%
7.89
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
4%
22.81
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 2.07 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 7D 10L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (13W 12D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for FC ST. Gallen against 1.82 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 5W 6D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.86 points per game from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.21 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 11W 7D 10L in their last 28 games (1.43 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 13W 12D 3L in their last 28 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
3
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for FC ST. Gallen, 64% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC ST. Gallen) and 57% (FC Basel 1893). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 64% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 57% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 29, as FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.81 xG and FC Basel 1893 2.07 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.18 / defence 1.18 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.10 / defence 1.24, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 35% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 44%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 68%, FC Basel 1893 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.43 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.