FC Sion 0-2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Relegation Round sees Stade Lausanne-Ouchy travel to Stade de Tourbillon to take on FC Sion. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 June 2023, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Sion have posted 0W 2D 8L at Stade de Tourbillon — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.25 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.635 / defence 1.326 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.300. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.635 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 FC Sion games / 0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 31% | Draw 29% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 31% | Draw 29% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Sion 1.25 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.635 / def 1.326 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
FC Sion 0 - 2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 31% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Sion and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in?
FC Sion (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC Sion home split: 0.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Sion's attack at 0.64x the league average against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.48
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.71
1.47
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.47 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Pre-Season
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Sion
0
Draws
2
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 0, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
They last met on 6 June 2023, when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy beat FC Sion 0-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Relegation Round, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.25 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.47 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.64 / defence 1.33 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 72/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 31% | Draw 29% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 41%, with Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.