FC Sion 0-1 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs Grasshoppers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Sion welcome Grasshoppers to Stade de Tourbillon in Super League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 18 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Sion — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC Sion have posted 4W 4D 1L from their last 9 home games — 1.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Grasshoppers stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Grasshoppers have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FC Sion carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FC Sion have won 1, Grasshoppers 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended FC Sion 1–3 Grasshoppers — a Grasshoppers win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Sion trading profile (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Grasshoppers trading profile (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 50% versus Grasshoppers 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 44% | Grasshoppers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.44 xG and Grasshoppers 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 1.049 / defence 1.034 | Grasshoppers attack 0.727 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.305. Grasshoppers's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from FC Sion's last 18 games and Grasshoppers's last 51.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 47% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.12 | Draw 3.62 | Grasshoppers 3.97. FC Sion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Sion 56% (last 9 home games) | Grasshoppers 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 47% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG FC Sion 1.44 / Grasshoppers 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 1.049 / def 1.034 | Grasshoppers attack 0.727 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Grasshoppers xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sion vs Grasshoppers FAQs
What time does FC Sion vs Grasshoppers kick off?
FC Sion vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
FC Sion 0 - 1 Grasshoppers.
Where is FC Sion vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Grasshoppers part of?
FC Sion vs Grasshoppers is a Super League fixture (matchday 19) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 47% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Sion and Grasshoppers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will FC Sion vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Sion's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Sion's last 18 games and Grasshoppers's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.62
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.42
0.98
Grasshoppers xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
16.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sion vs Grasshoppers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FC Sion and 0.98 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sion's recent record stands at 7W 5D 6L from 18 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Grasshoppers, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 9L across 18 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Sion by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Grasshoppers heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 4W 4D 1L from their last 9 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grasshoppers's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across their last 9 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sion are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 0.94 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grasshoppers in 61%.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
FC Sion (Home) vs Grasshoppers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sion
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ FC Sion vs Grasshoppers Form FAQs
What form are FC Sion and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 3W 6D 9L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or Grasshoppers away?
FC Sion's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.78 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from March 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Sion have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2026, when FC Sion won Grasshoppers 0-4 FC Sion.
FC Sion's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Sion
1
Draws
3
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sion vs Grasshoppers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Grasshoppers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sion have won 6, Grasshoppers have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Grasshoppers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: Grasshoppers 2-5 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Grasshoppers?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 56%, Grasshoppers 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Sion) and 33% (Grasshoppers).
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Grasshoppers in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sion vs Grasshoppers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sion and Grasshoppers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FC Sion's recent matches and 33% of Grasshoppers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Sion and Grasshoppers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Sion's recent games and 33% of Grasshoppers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and Grasshoppers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of FC Sion's recent matches and 78% of Grasshoppers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grasshoppers defy the odds to beat FC Sion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers beat FC Sion 0-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.44 xG and Grasshoppers 0.98 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Grasshoppers attack 0.73 / defence 0.90, drawn from 18/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 47% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 25%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Grasshoppers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 44%, Grasshoppers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Grasshoppers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.