FC Sion 0-1 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Zurich at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Zurich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Zurich at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's home record at Stade de Tourbillon: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Zurich have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Zurich's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Zurich — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Sion, 1 for FC Zurich and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with FC Zurich winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FC Sion trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Zurich trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 61% versus FC Zurich 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 57% | FC Zurich 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.43 xG and FC Zurich 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.921 / defence 1.392 | FC Zurich attack 0.866 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.387. Data: 54 FC Sion games / 54 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 26% | FC Zurich 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | FC Zurich 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Zurich as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Zurich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 60% | FC Zurich 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 26% | FC Zurich 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Sion 1.43 / FC Zurich 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.921 / def 1.392 | FC Zurich attack 0.866 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: FC Zurich (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.67
FC Zurich xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
FC Sion 0 - 1 FC Zurich.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 32% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Zurich the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Sion and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
Record (1 meetings): FC Sion 0W | Draws 0 | FC Zurich 1W.
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in?
FC Sion (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. FC Zurich (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against FC Zurich's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Zurich Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.78
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.10
1.67
FC Zurich xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
6%
16.87
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.67 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion's recent record stands at 16W 14D 24L from 54 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 14L across 54 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Zurich by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Sion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 8W 6D 13L from 27 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Zurich's away record stands at 12W 7D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Zurich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.74 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 26W 14D 14L in their last 54 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Zurich's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.11 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Zurich runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, FC Zurich have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Zurich 1-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 52%, FC Zurich 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Sion) and 52% (FC Zurich).
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Zurich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC Sion's recent matches and 56% of FC Zurich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of FC Sion's recent games and 52% of FC Zurich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC Zurich tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Zurich edge out FC Sion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Zurich beat FC Sion 0-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.43 xG and FC Zurich 1.67 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 1.39 against FC Zurich attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 32% | Draw 26% | FC Zurich 42%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 57%, FC Zurich 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Zurich's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Zurich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.