FC Sion 1-1 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Zurich at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Zurich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Zurich at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's home record at Stade de Tourbillon: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Zurich have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Zurich's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Zurich — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
FC Sion trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Zurich trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 62% and FC Zurich 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 48% | FC Zurich 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.45 xG and FC Zurich 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.962 / defence 0.909 | FC Zurich attack 1.046 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.557. Data: 21 FC Sion games / 21 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 37% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | FC Zurich 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Zurich as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Zurich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 50% | FC Zurich 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 37% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Sion 1.45 / FC Zurich 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.962 / def 0.909 | FC Zurich attack 1.046 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: FC Zurich (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FC Zurich xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
FC Sion 1 - 1 FC Zurich.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 37% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Zurich the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Sion and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. FC Zurich (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC Zurich's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Zurich Win
37%
2.70
25%
4.06
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.93
1.48
FC Zurich xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.48 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion's recent record stands at 7W 4D 10L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 2L across 21 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Zurich by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Sion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 5W 1D 4L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — FC Sion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Zurich's away record stands at 6W 2D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 2.38 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Zurich in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 15W 4D 2L in their last 21 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Zurich's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Zurich away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Zurich runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, FC Zurich have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Zurich 1-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 50%, FC Zurich 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for FC Sion and 80% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Zurich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Sion's games and 70% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of FC Sion's matches and 80% of FC Zurich's.
Do FC Sion and FC Zurich tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and FC Zurich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion and FC Zurich finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.45 xG and FC Zurich 1.48 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against FC Zurich attack 1.05 / defence 1.18, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 37% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 38%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 48%, FC Zurich 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Zurich's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.