FC Sion 0-3 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 28 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC ST. Gallen's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC Sion's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 63% and FC ST. Gallen 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 48% | FC ST. Gallen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.16 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.835 / defence 1.028 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.096 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.559. Data: 27 FC Sion games / 27 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 25% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 51%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | FC ST. Gallen 1.96. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 40% | FC ST. Gallen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 25% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Sion 1.16 / FC ST. Gallen 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.835 / def 1.028 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.096 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.559 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.76
FC ST. Gallen xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Sion 0 - 3 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 25% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
25%
3.98
24%
4.25
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.91
1.76
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
4%
23.06
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.76 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 6D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.11 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — FC Sion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (5W 1D 7L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.78 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Sion's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.54 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
4
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 46%, FC ST. Gallen 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (FC Sion) and 77% (FC ST. Gallen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of FC Sion's games and 69% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of FC Sion's matches and 77% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Sion 0-3 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.16 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.76 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.10 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 25% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 51%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 48%, FC ST. Gallen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.11 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.