FC Sion 2-2 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 11 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 0L across 5 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Tourbillon. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC Sion are significantly better at Stade de Tourbillon than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.40 (FC ST. Gallen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Sion, 2 for FC ST. Gallen and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 0–4 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 40% versus FC ST. Gallen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 40% | FC ST. Gallen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.33 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.847 / defence 0.810 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.943 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.219. Data: 10 FC Sion games / 43 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 46% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | FC ST. Gallen 3.85. FC Sion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 40% | FC ST. Gallen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 46% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG FC Sion 1.33 / FC ST. Gallen 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.847 / def 0.810 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.943 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC ST. Gallen xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Sion 2 - 2 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 46% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (2 meetings): FC Sion 0W | Draws 0 | FC ST. Gallen 2W.
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.58
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.26
0.93
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
7%
14.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC Sion and 0.93 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 3D 4L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.20 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — FC Sion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.80 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Sion's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.80 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 0.80 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC ST. Gallen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC ST. Gallen in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
4
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 40%, FC ST. Gallen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for FC Sion and 40% for FC ST. Gallen.
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; FC ST. Gallen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC ST. Gallen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Sion's recent matches and 60% of FC ST. Gallen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of FC Sion's recent games and 40% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 11, as FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.33 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.93 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.85 / defence 0.81 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 10/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 46% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 26%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 40%, FC ST. Gallen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.20 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.