FC Basel 1893 1-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 4 as FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at St. Jakob-Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Super League fixtures this season — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893 are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.07 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Lausanne in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 100% and Lausanne 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Basel 1893 100% | Lausanne 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 2.10 xG and Lausanne 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.190 / defence 1.044 | Lausanne attack 0.844 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.316. Data: 39 FC Basel 1893 games / 3 Lausanne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 56% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Lausanne 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 70% | Lausanne 100% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 56% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Basel 1893 2.10 / Lausanne 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.190 / def 1.044 | Lausanne attack 0.844 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Lausanne xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 56% chance of winning, Lausanne a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Lausanne (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.80
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.26
1.16
Lausanne xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
2%
46.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.16 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Basel 1893 by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Lausanne in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Basel 1893 at 100%, Lausanne at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Basel 1893 and 67% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Basel 1893's games and 100% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 67% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lausanne defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Basel 1893 1-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 2.10 xG and Lausanne 1.16 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lausanne outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Lausanne attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 56% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 18%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 100%, Lausanne 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Lausanne scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.