FC Basel 1893 3-1 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. Jakob-Park plays host to FC Basel 1893 versus FC Zurich in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Basel 1893's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 0L from 7 games (2.14 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.71 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893 at St. Jakob-Park this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Zurich (all games): 4W 2D 1L across 7 Super League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.14 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Zurich have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Zurich's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.14 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Zurich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 71% and FC Zurich 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 43% | FC Zurich 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 2.87 xG and FC Zurich 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.453 / defence 0.975 | FC Zurich attack 0.945 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.579. FC Basel 1893 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — their λ of 2.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Zurich bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing FC Basel 1893's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 FC Basel 1893 games / 7 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 65% | Draw 19% | FC Zurich 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | FC Zurich 6.67. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.87 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 100% | FC Zurich 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 65% | Draw 19% | FC Zurich 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Basel 1893 2.87 / FC Zurich 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.453 / def 0.975 | FC Zurich attack 0.945 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.579 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.46
FC Zurich xG
74%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich?
FC Basel 1893 3 - 1 FC Zurich.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 65% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Zurich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Zurich in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-3D-0L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.71 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. FC Zurich (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (1.45) and FC Zurich's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Zurich's attack (0.94x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
65%
1.54
19%
5.14
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
2 – 2
5.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
4.33
1.46
FC Zurich xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
6%
17.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
1%
113.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.46 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 4.33.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, FC Basel 1893 have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 4W 3D 0L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Zurich's form line: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Zurich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.14 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 2.00 for FC Zurich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Basel 1893 have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
On the road, FC Zurich have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Zurich's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 2.14 scored and 1.71 conceded. FC Zurich's attacking output running into FC Basel 1893's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC Zurich in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
FC Zurich
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 2.33 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Basel 1893 go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Basel 1893 won 0-4 on 12 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Zurich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
2
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Zurich?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Zurich have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when FC Basel 1893 2-1 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Zurich?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for FC Basel 1893, 67% for FC Zurich — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Basel 1893 and 100% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Zurich in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Zurich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Basel 1893's games and 67% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 100% of FC Zurich's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Zurich tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Zurich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Zurich 3-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 2.87 xG and FC Zurich 1.46 xG, a combined 4.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.45 / defence 0.97 against FC Zurich attack 0.94 / defence 1.41, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 65% | Draw 19% | FC Zurich 15%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 43%, FC Zurich 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC Zurich's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 2.14 PPG, FC Zurich 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 3 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.