FC Basel 1893 0-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. Jakob-Park plays host to FC Basel 1893 versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's home record at St. Jakob-Park: 4W 2D 0L from 6 Super League appearances (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC ST. Gallen have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's away record: 1W 0D 5L from 6 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward FC Basel 1893. A 1.20 PPG lead over FC ST. Gallen (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Basel 1893 register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, FC ST. Gallen in 83%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 67% and FC ST. Gallen 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 42% | FC ST. Gallen 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 3.02 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.255 / defence 0.869 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.702 / defence 1.680. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.520. FC Basel 1893 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 3.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC ST. Gallen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.680 — this is suppressing FC Basel 1893's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 FC Basel 1893 games / 12 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 78% | Draw 15% | FC ST. Gallen 7%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | FC ST. Gallen 14.29. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 83% | FC ST. Gallen 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 78% | Draw 15% | FC ST. Gallen 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Basel 1893 3.02 / FC ST. Gallen 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.255 / def 0.869 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.702 / def 1.680 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.02
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC ST. Gallen xG
59%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Basel 1893 0 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 78% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (1.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.02. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (0.70x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
78%
1.29
15%
6.50
7%
14.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.02
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.95
0.93
FC ST. Gallen xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.50
15%
Draw
14.53
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
5%
20.51
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 3.02 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.93 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 5D 0L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.50 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 7W 5D 0L in their last 12 games (2.17 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 2.33 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 0.50 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or FC ST. Gallen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC ST. Gallen in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for FC Basel 1893, 83% for FC ST. Gallen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Basel 1893 and 83% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of FC Basel 1893's games and 83% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 83% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC ST. Gallen defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 0-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 3.02 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.93 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Basel 1893 fell 3.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.25 / defence 0.87 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.70 / defence 1.68, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 78% | Draw 15% | FC ST. Gallen 7%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a FC ST. Gallen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 42%, FC ST. Gallen 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with FC ST. Gallen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.