FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 3 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Sion's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC Basel 1893's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FC Basel 1893: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for FC Sion, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with FC Sion winning.
The historical record gives FC Basel 1893 a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Sion trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 60% versus FC Sion 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 62% | FC Sion 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 2.08 xG and FC Sion 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.027 / defence 0.909 | FC Sion attack 1.008 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.922 / away 1.723. Data: 38 FC Basel 1893 games / 37 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 23% | FC Sion 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | FC Sion 3.45. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
FC Basel 1893 dominate the H2H record, yet FC Sion are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Sion (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 70% | FC Sion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 23% | FC Sion 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Basel 1893 2.08 / FC Sion 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.027 / def 0.909 | FC Sion attack 1.008 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.922 / away 1.723 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.58
FC Sion xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 3 September 2026 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 2 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 49% chance of winning, FC Sion a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
Record (9 meetings): FC Basel 1893 5W | Draws 2 | FC Sion 2W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. FC Sion (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (1.03) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
49%
2.05
23%
4.44
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.66
1.58
FC Sion xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
4%
28.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.58 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 42 games, going 19W 9D 14L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.64 PPG from 42 outings (18W 15D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.57 PPG, FC Sion on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 8W 6D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (7W 8D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: FC Sion in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
FC Sion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 19W 9D 14L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 18W 15D 9L in their last 42 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.45 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, FC Sion in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
2
Draws
3
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 60%, FC Sion 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Basel 1893) and 65% (FC Sion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Basel 1893's games and 65% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 65% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC Basel 1893 1-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 2.08 xG and FC Sion 1.58 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against FC Sion attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 23% | FC Sion 29%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual FC Sion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 62%, FC Sion 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.57 PPG, FC Sion 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.