FC Basel 1893 2-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 68% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, FC Basel 1893 have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Basel 1893 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Sion stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 1.30 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC Basel 1893's games and 60% of FC Sion's (from FC Basel 1893's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
FC Basel 1893 hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for FC Sion and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Jan 2025, ended FC Basel 1893 4–1 FC Sion — a FC Basel 1893 win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FC Basel 1893 and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Sion trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 64% and FC Sion 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 60% | FC Sion 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 2.36 xG and FC Sion 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.089 / defence 0.870 | FC Sion attack 0.907 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.209. FC Sion's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Basel 1893's projected output up. Data: built from FC Basel 1893's last 58 games and FC Sion's last 25.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 68% | Draw 19% | FC Sion 13%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.47 | Draw 5.21 | FC Sion 7.79. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (FC Basel 1893 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Basel 1893's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Basel 1893 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Sion 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 68% | Draw 19% | FC Sion 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG FC Basel 1893 2.36 / FC Sion 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.089 / def 0.870 | FC Sion attack 0.907 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC Sion xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion FAQs
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 2 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 68% chance of winning, FC Sion a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (1.09) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Basel 1893's last 58 games and FC Sion's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.21
13%
7.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.32
0.95
FC Sion xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
7.79
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
9%
10.62
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
1%
82.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.95 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 25 games, going 12W 6D 7L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 7W 2D 3L across their last 12 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 0.58 points per game from their last 12 away games (2W 1D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Sion in 60%.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
FC Basel 1893 (Home) vs FC Sion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Form FAQs
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.92 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won FC Basel 1893 4-1 FC Sion.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
2
Draws
3
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 58%, FC Sion 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Basel 1893) and 58% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC Basel 1893's games and 58% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 58% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 75% of FC Sion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 2-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 2.36 xG and FC Sion 0.95 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against FC Sion attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 68% | Draw 19% | FC Sion 13%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 60%, FC Sion 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.