BSC Young Boys 2-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 29 as BSC Young Boys welcome Lausanne to Stadion Wankdorf. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BSC Young Boys — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
BSC Young Boys at Stadion Wankdorf this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — BSC Young Boys are significantly better at Stadion Wankdorf than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Lausanne's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 71% and Lausanne 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 68% | Lausanne 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 1.99 xG and Lausanne 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.177 / defence 1.057 | Lausanne attack 0.519 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.592. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing BSC Young Boys's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 BSC Young Boys games / 28 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 64% | Draw 21% | Lausanne 16%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Lausanne 6.25. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BSC Young Boys 90% | Lausanne 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 64% | Draw 21% | Lausanne 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG BSC Young Boys 1.99 / Lausanne 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.177 / def 1.057 | Lausanne attack 0.519 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.592 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Lausanne xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
BSC Young Boys 2 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne part of?
BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 64% chance of winning, Lausanne a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both BSC Young Boys and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.18) and Lausanne's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus BSC Young Boys's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.80
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
2.87
0.87
Lausanne xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
2%
46.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 0.87 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BSC Young Boys's recent record stands at 12W 10D 6L from 28 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 18L across 28 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours BSC Young Boys by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, BSC Young Boys have managed 8W 3D 2L from 13 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lausanne's away record stands at 1W 3D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BSC Young Boys are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 0.96 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Lausanne in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
Lausanne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 12W 10D 6L in their last 28 games (1.64 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 3W 7D 18L in their last 28 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or Lausanne away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.08 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BSC Young Boys's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
1
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 5, Lausanne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lausanne 0-2 BSC Young Boys.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — BSC Young Boys at 85%, Lausanne at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (BSC Young Boys) and 38% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of BSC Young Boys's games and 54% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 38% of Lausanne's.
Do BSC Young Boys and Lausanne tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BSC Young Boys and Lausanne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 29, as BSC Young Boys and Lausanne drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.99 xG and Lausanne 0.87 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.18 / defence 1.06 against Lausanne attack 0.52 / defence 1.37, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 64% | Draw 21% | Lausanne 16%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 68%, Lausanne 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.