BSC Young Boys 4-3 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as BSC Young Boys welcome FC Sion to Stadion Wankdorf. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
BSC Young Boys — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Wankdorf, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Sion in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 67% and FC Sion 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 60% | FC Sion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 2.09 xG and FC Sion 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.147 / defence 1.065 | FC Sion attack 0.694 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.535. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing BSC Young Boys's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 BSC Young Boys games / 16 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 59% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 20%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | FC Sion 5.00. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BSC Young Boys 71% | FC Sion 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 59% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG BSC Young Boys 2.09 / FC Sion 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.147 / def 1.065 | FC Sion attack 0.694 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.535 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FC Sion xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
BSC Young Boys 4 - 3 FC Sion.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 59% chance of winning, FC Sion a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Sion in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. FC Sion (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.15) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus BSC Young Boys's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.78
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
3.22
1.14
FC Sion xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
2%
40.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.14 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BSC Young Boys's recent record stands at 7W 4D 4L from 15 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 7L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BSC Young Boys by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Sion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, BSC Young Boys have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BSC Young Boys are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.20 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FC Sion in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Sion in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC Sion away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BSC Young Boys and FC Sion runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2023, when BSC Young Boys won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BSC Young Boys's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BSC Young Boys
2
Draws
4
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 4, FC Sion have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — BSC Young Boys at 71%, FC Sion at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (BSC Young Boys) and 43% (FC Sion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of BSC Young Boys's games and 71% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 43% of FC Sion's.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC Sion tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BSC Young Boys edge out FC Sion 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC Sion 4-3 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.09 xG and FC Sion 1.14 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 / defence 1.06 against FC Sion attack 0.69 / defence 1.44, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 59% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 20%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 60%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.