Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Vasalund to Iver Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 April 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.39 xG and Vasalund 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.781 / defence 1.049 | Vasalund attack 0.888 / defence 1.573. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 0.742. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.573 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Vasteras SK FK games / 2 Vasalund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 32% | Vasalund 16%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Vasalund 6.25. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Apr 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 32% | Vasalund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.39 / Vasalund 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.781 / def 1.049 | Vasalund attack 0.888 / def 1.573 | league avg home 1.132 / away 0.742 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Vasalund xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 26 April 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 1 Vasalund.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 51% chance of winning, Vasalund a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Vasalund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Vasalund in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.78) and Vasalund's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasalund's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
51%
1.94
32%
3.09
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.08
0.69
Vasalund xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
4%
24.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.69 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Vasalund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Vasalund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2021, when Vasalund 0-1 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Vasalund?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out Vasalund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Vasalund 2-1 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.39 xG and Vasalund 0.69 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Vasalund attack 0.89 / defence 1.57, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 32% | Vasalund 16%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.