Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 37%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Ostersunds FK to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 21 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hitachi Energy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for Ostersunds FK and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Ostersunds FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 40% versus Ostersunds FK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 53% | Ostersunds FK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.23 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.918 / defence 1.023 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.946 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.284. Data: 8 Vasteras SK FK games / 38 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 36% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 37%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Ostersunds FK 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Ostersunds FK 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 36% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.23 / Ostersunds FK 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.918 / def 1.023 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.946 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Ostersunds FK xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 21 May 2025 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 36% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK?
Record (4 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 2 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.68
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.47
1.24
Ostersunds FK xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.24 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 19W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Vasteras SK FK are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 2.27 PPG from 15 outings (10W 4D 1L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 3D 10L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.13 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK in 60%.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 19W 6D 5L in their last 30 games (2.10 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.27 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when Vasteras SK FK won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Ostersunds FK 1-6 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 27%, Ostersunds FK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasteras SK FK) and 47% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 33% of games; Ostersunds FK in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 53% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 47% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.23 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.24 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 36% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 37%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 53%, Ostersunds FK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.