Vasteras SK FK 2-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK host Orgryte IS at Iver Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Iver Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Iver Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 1.50 (Orgryte IS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, Orgryte IS 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 54% versus Orgryte IS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 50% | Orgryte IS 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.25 xG and Orgryte IS 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.033 / defence 1.340 | Orgryte IS attack 0.869 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.169. Data: 26 Vasteras SK FK games / 26 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 39%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Orgryte IS 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 60% | Orgryte IS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.25 / Orgryte IS 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.033 / def 1.340 | Orgryte IS attack 0.869 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Orgryte IS xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 34% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (1.03) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.81
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.62
1.36
Orgryte IS xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.36 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 8D 10L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (7W 12D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.23 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 4W 5D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.19 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 7W 12D 7L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.31 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
6
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
From 9 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 62%, Orgryte IS 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Vasteras SK FK) and 46% (Orgryte IS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 31%; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 62% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 46% of Orgryte IS's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS finished level at 2-2 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.25 xG and Orgryte IS 1.36 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.03 / defence 1.34 against Orgryte IS attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 39%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 50%, Orgryte IS 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.23 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.