Vasteras SK FK 0-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Iver Arena plays host to Vasteras SK FK versus IFK Varnamo in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Monday 17 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.04 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.000 / defence 1.120 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.002 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 0.936 / away 0.894. Data: 5 Vasteras SK FK games / 5 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 32% | IFK Varnamo 33%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | IFK Varnamo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Monday 17 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 32% | IFK Varnamo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.04 / IFK Varnamo 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.000 / def 1.120 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.002 / def 1.109 | league avg home 0.936 / away 0.894 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.00
IFK Varnamo xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 17 May 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 35% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IFK Varnamo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (1.00x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
35%
2.85
32%
3.16
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.04
1.00
IFK Varnamo xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.00 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
IFK Varnamo go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Varnamo?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when IFK Varnamo 2-0 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Vasteras SK FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Vasteras SK FK and IFK Varnamo drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.04 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.00 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 32% | IFK Varnamo 33%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.