Vasteras SK FK 3-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 24 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Gais to Iver Arena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 5 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Iver Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 1.40 (Gais). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, Gais 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2021, ended 0–1 with Gais winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Gais trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 64% versus Gais 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 54% | Gais 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.16 xG and Gais 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.919 / defence 1.520 | Gais attack 1.030 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.130. Data: 23 Vasteras SK FK games / 22 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 25% | Draw 23% | Gais 52%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Gais 1.92. Gais hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Gais 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 25% | Draw 23% | Gais 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.16 / Gais 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.919 / def 1.520 | Gais attack 1.030 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Gais (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Gais xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 5 October 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Vasteras SK FK 3 - 0 Gais.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 25% chance of winning, Gais a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Gais in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Gais (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
25%
3.99
23%
4.27
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.93
1.77
Gais xG
3.99
25%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
4%
23.40
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.77 for Gais, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 7D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.00 PPG, Gais on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 3W 4D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.09 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Gais in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Gais have gone 8W 3D 11L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Gais away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.18 PPG; Gais away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Gais runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2021, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Gais specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
4
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Gais have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Gais see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 73%, Gais 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Vasteras SK FK) and 27% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 27% of games; Gais in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 27% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 27% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Gais tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Gais in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gais.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Gais 3-0 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.16 xG and Gais 1.77 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gais landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.92 / defence 1.52 against Gais attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 25% | Draw 23% | Gais 52%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 54%, Gais 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.00 PPG, Gais 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.