Vasalund 2-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasalund host Trelleborg at Skytteholms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.15 xG and Trelleborg 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 0.972 / defence 1.150 | Trelleborg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 0.734. Data: 1 Vasalund games / 1 Trelleborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasalund 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Trelleborg 4.35. Vasalund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Trelleborg's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasalund are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasalund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Vasalund 1.15 / Trelleborg 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 0.972 / def 1.150 | Trelleborg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.023 / away 0.734 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Trelleborg xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs Trelleborg kick off?
Vasalund vs Trelleborg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs Trelleborg?
Vasalund 2 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Vasalund vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs Trelleborg part of?
Vasalund vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 46% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Vasalund and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasalund and Trelleborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasalund's attack rating (0.97) and Trelleborg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Vasalund's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.21
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Vasalund xG
Total xG
1.86
0.72
Trelleborg xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Vasalund and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Vasalund and 0.72 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasalund and Trelleborg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vasalund
1
Draws
0
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Trelleborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 1, Trelleborg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2021, when Trelleborg 1-2 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and Trelleborg?
Vasalund have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Vasalund and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasalund and Trelleborg finished level at 2-2 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.15 xG and Trelleborg 0.72 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vasalund beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Trelleborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.