Vasalund 1-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Vasalund at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Jonkopings Sodra make the trip to Skytteholms IP to face Vasalund in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Vasalund (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasalund at Skytteholms IP this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Jonkopings Sodra's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jonkopings Sodra's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Vasalund, 0.90 for Jonkopings Sodra — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vasalund 0W, Jonkopings Sodra 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2021, ended 1–5 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Vasalund half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasalund 50% versus Jonkopings Sodra 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasalund 58% | Jonkopings Sodra 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.30 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 0.872 / defence 1.314 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.653 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.174. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Vasalund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Vasalund games / 26 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vasalund 43% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 29%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Jonkopings Sodra 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Vasalund are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasalund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasalund 50% | Jonkopings Sodra 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights