Vasalund 1-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 24 as Vasalund welcome IFK Varnamo to Skytteholms IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 4 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasalund — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasalund at Skytteholms IP this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. IFK Varnamo's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Vasalund's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vasalund, 1 for IFK Varnamo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Vasalund trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
IFK Varnamo trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasalund 48% versus IFK Varnamo 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasalund 61% | IFK Varnamo 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.36 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 1.017 / defence 1.447 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.056 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.128. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Vasalund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Vasalund games / 23 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 30% | Draw 24% | IFK Varnamo 46%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Varnamo 2.17. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. This conflicts with form data: Vasalund 40% | IFK Varnamo 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Monday 4 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 30% | Draw 24% | IFK Varnamo 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Vasalund 1.36 / IFK Varnamo 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 1.017 / def 1.447 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.056 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
1.73
IFK Varnamo xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 October 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo?
Vasalund 1 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 30% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vasalund and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and IFK Varnamo?
Record (1 meetings): Vasalund 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are Vasalund and IFK Varnamo in?
Vasalund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasalund's attack rating (1.02) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Vasalund's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
30%
3.29
24%
4.26
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Vasalund xG
Total xG
3.08
1.73
IFK Varnamo xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
5%
18.49
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Vasalund and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vasalund and 1.73 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Vasalund have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 6W 3D 14L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 14W 4D 5L from 23 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IFK Varnamo are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasalund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasalund have posted 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 5W 2D 4L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IFK Varnamo's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasalund are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.35 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasalund and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Vasalund have gone 6W 3D 14L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 14W 4D 5L in their last 23 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasalund at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Varnamo's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasalund at home: 1.18 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Vasalund or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasalund have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasalund
1
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and IFK Varnamo?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 0, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2021, when Vasalund 1-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasalund see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasalund 46%, IFK Varnamo 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Vasalund) and 46% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 36%; Vasalund have failed to score in 36% of games; IFK Varnamo in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasalund play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vasalund's recent matches and 27% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasalund vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Vasalund's recent games and 46% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasalund and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Vasalund have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasalund and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 24, as Vasalund and IFK Varnamo drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.36 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.73 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 1.02 / defence 1.45 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.06 / defence 1.24, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 30% | Draw 24% | IFK Varnamo 46%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasalund 61%, IFK Varnamo 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasalund's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.