Vasalund 0-1 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasalund at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Akropolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasalund host Akropolis at Skytteholms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasalund — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skytteholms IP, Vasalund have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akropolis stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akropolis's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasalund 1.10 PPG, Akropolis 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vasalund have won 0, Akropolis 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2021, ended 2–3 with Akropolis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vasalund trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Akropolis trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasalund 52% versus Akropolis 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasalund 62% | Akropolis 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.84 xG and Akropolis 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 1.161 / defence 1.515 | Akropolis attack 0.955 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.137. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.482 — this is suppressing Vasalund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Vasalund games / 21 Akropolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 43% | Draw 22% | Akropolis 35%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Akropolis 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasalund as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasalund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasalund 50% | Akropolis 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 43% | Draw 22% | Akropolis 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Vasalund 1.84 / Akropolis 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 1.161 / def 1.515 | Akropolis attack 0.955 / def 1.482 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Akropolis xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs Akropolis kick off?
Vasalund vs Akropolis kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs Akropolis?
Vasalund 0 - 1 Akropolis.
Where is Vasalund vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs Akropolis part of?
Vasalund vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 43% chance of winning, Akropolis a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Vasalund and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Akropolis?
Record (1 meetings): Vasalund 0W | Draws 0 | Akropolis 1W.
What form are Vasalund and Akropolis in?
Vasalund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Akropolis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vasalund's attack at 1.16x the league average against Akropolis's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akropolis's attack versus Vasalund's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
43%
2.33
22%
4.50
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Vasalund xG
Total xG
3.49
1.65
Akropolis xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Vasalund and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Vasalund and 1.65 for Akropolis, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs Akropolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Vasalund have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 3D 12L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akropolis's form line: 5W 6D 10L from 21 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasalund on 1.00 PPG, Akropolis on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasalund have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L).
On the road, Akropolis have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasalund are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Akropolis are on 0.95 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Blended
Akropolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasalund and Akropolis in coming into this match?
Vasalund have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Akropolis have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasalund at home or Akropolis away?
Vasalund's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasalund at home: 1.30 PPG; Akropolis away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasalund
0
Draws
2
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 0, Akropolis have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2021, when Vasalund 0-1 Akropolis.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and Akropolis?
Akropolis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasalund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasalund 50%, Akropolis 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Vasalund) and 40% (Akropolis).
On the defensive side: Vasalund have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasalund play Akropolis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Vasalund's games and 70% of Akropolis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasalund vs Akropolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Vasalund's recent games and 40% of Akropolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasalund and Akropolis tend to score early?
Vasalund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Akropolis in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akropolis defy the odds to beat Vasalund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis beat Vasalund 0-1 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.84 xG and Akropolis 1.65 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasalund fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 1.16 / defence 1.51 against Akropolis attack 0.95 / defence 1.48, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 43% | Draw 22% | Akropolis 35%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Akropolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasalund 62%, Akropolis 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasalund's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Akropolis's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasalund 1.00 PPG, Akropolis 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akropolis win broke the near-deadlock. Vasalund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Akropolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.