Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Ostersunds FK to Paskbergsvallen in Superettan (matchday 1). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Varbergs BoIS FC — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Ostersunds FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Varbergs BoIS FC) versus 1.40 (Ostersunds FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Varbergs BoIS FC: 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Ostersunds FK, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Varbergs BoIS FC 1–1 Ostersunds FK — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Varbergs BoIS FC an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 67% versus Ostersunds FK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | Ostersunds FK 48%). Note also that Ostersunds FK surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Varbergs BoIS FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.84 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.980 / defence 0.993 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.880 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.204. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 30 games and Ostersunds FK's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 55% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.82 | Draw 4.06 | Ostersunds FK 4.86. The model has a clear lean to Varbergs BoIS FC (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Varbergs BoIS FC 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Varbergs BoIS FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Ostersunds FK 20% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Varbergs BoIS FC 30 games, Ostersunds FK 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 1 | Venue: Paskbergsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 55% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.84 / Ostersunds FK 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.980 / def 0.993 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.880 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ostersunds FK xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Paskbergsvallen.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Paskbergsvallen.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 1) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 55% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.98) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 30 games and Ostersunds FK's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.06
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.05
Ostersunds FK xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
3%
30.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.05 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 21W 19D 20L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.37 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 10D 8L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 8D 18L from their last 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.12 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs Ostersunds FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK Form FAQs
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 21W 19D 20L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2020. They cover more than one competition — Allsvenskan, Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Nov 2020, when Varbergs BoIS FC won Ostersunds FK 0-4 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
3
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Ostersunds FK 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Ostersunds FK 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 37% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 37% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 37% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 63% of Ostersunds FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.84 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.05 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 55% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 21%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Ostersunds FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.37 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.