Utsikten 0-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utsikten host Trelleborg at Bravida Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utsikten stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utsikten have posted 4W 3D 3L at Bravida Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Utsikten at 1.30 PPG versus Trelleborg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Utsikten, 2 for Trelleborg and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Utsikten in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 51% versus Trelleborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 49% | Trelleborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.37 xG and Trelleborg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.956 / defence 0.959 | Trelleborg attack 0.876 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.207. Data: 47 Utsikten games / 47 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 45% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 28%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Trelleborg 3.57. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 40% | Trelleborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 45% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Utsikten 1.37 / Trelleborg 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.956 / def 0.959 | Trelleborg attack 0.876 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Trelleborg xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Trelleborg kick off?
Utsikten vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Utsikten 0 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Utsikten vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Trelleborg part of?
Utsikten vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 45% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Utsikten and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Trelleborg?
Record (5 meetings): Utsikten 1W | Draws 2 | Trelleborg 2W.
What form are Utsikten and Trelleborg in?
Utsikten (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Utsikten's attack rating (0.96) and Trelleborg's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.68
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.39
1.01
Trelleborg xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
7%
14.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.01 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Utsikten have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 21W 12D 14L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg's form line: 15W 14D 18L from 47 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.60 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Utsikten have posted 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (12W 6D 5L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 6W 8D 9L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utsikten are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.23 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 21W 12D 14L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 15W 14D 18L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Trelleborg away?
Utsikten's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.83 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jul 2023, when Utsikten won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utsikten's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Utsikten
3
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 2, Trelleborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Utsikten 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 61%, Trelleborg 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Utsikten) and 48% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Utsikten keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Trelleborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Utsikten's games and 65% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Utsikten's recent games and 48% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utsikten and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Utsikten 0-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.37 xG and Trelleborg 1.01 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Trelleborg outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Trelleborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 45% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 28%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 49%, Trelleborg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trelleborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.60 PPG, Trelleborg 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.