Utsikten 2-3 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utsikten vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utsikten host Trelleborg at Bravida Arena in Superettan (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Utsikten stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Utsikten have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Utsikten are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Trelleborg have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Utsikten have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Utsikten's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Utsikten have won 1, Trelleborg 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 10 Jul 2023, ended Utsikten 3–0 Trelleborg — a Utsikten win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Utsikten in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 52% versus Trelleborg 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 52% | Trelleborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.91 xG and Trelleborg 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.283 / defence 0.743 | Trelleborg attack 1.028 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.251. Utsikten carry an above-average attack rating of 1.283 — their 1.91 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Utsikten have a tight defence (rating 0.743), which is pulling Trelleborg's projected output down. Data: built from Utsikten's last 52 games and Trelleborg's last 52.
Result probabilities: Utsikten 59% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 17%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 1.70 | Draw 4.21 | Trelleborg 5.73. The model has a clear lean to Utsikten (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Utsikten's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Utsikten 70% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 23 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 59% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Utsikten 1.91 / Trelleborg 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.283 / def 0.743 | Trelleborg attack 1.028 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Trelleborg xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utsikten vs Trelleborg FAQs
What time does Utsikten vs Trelleborg kick off?
Utsikten vs Trelleborg kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Utsikten 2 - 3 Trelleborg.
Where is Utsikten vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Trelleborg part of?
Utsikten vs Trelleborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 59% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Utsikten and Trelleborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Utsikten vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Utsikten's attack rating (1.28) and Trelleborg's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Utsikten's last 52 games and Trelleborg's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.21
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.87
0.96
Trelleborg xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
3%
38.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utsikten vs Trelleborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Utsikten and 0.96 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Utsikten have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 24W 11D 17L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 20W 12D 20L from 52 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.60 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Utsikten have posted 1.69 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 8D 6L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 8W 8D 10L from their last 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utsikten are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.46 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 65%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
Utsikten (Home) vs Trelleborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utsikten
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Utsikten vs Trelleborg Form FAQs
What form are Utsikten and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 24W 11D 17L in their last 52 games (1.60 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 20W 12D 20L in their last 52 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Trelleborg away?
Utsikten's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.69 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Utsikten or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 19 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Jul 2023, when Utsikten won Trelleborg 0-3 Utsikten.
Utsikten's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Utsikten
3
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Utsikten vs Trelleborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Trelleborg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Utsikten have won 2, Trelleborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Trelleborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2025: Utsikten 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Utsikten at 62%, Trelleborg at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Utsikten) and 62% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utsikten vs Trelleborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utsikten and Trelleborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Utsikten's games and 73% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Utsikten and Trelleborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Utsikten's matches and 62% of Trelleborg's.
Do Utsikten and Trelleborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Utsikten's recent matches and 65% of Trelleborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Utsikten 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Utsikten 2-3 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.91 xG and Trelleborg 0.96 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Trelleborg outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.28 / defence 0.74 against Trelleborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 59% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 17%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Trelleborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 52%, Trelleborg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Trelleborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.60 PPG, Trelleborg 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.