Trelleborg 1-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Sandviken meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 3D 4L at Vångavallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Sandviken (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.79 xG and Sandviken 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.928 / defence 1.244 | Sandviken attack 0.733 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 0.945. Sandviken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Trelleborg games / 2 Sandviken games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 59% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 17%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Sandviken 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Trelleborg (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 59% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Trelleborg 1.79 / Sandviken 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.928 / def 1.244 | Sandviken attack 0.733 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.359 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Sandviken xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Sandviken kick off?
Trelleborg vs Sandviken kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is Trelleborg vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Sandviken part of?
Trelleborg vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 59% chance of winning, Sandviken a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Trelleborg and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Sandviken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Sandviken in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Sandviken (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sandviken's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.73x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.15
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.65
0.86
Sandviken xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
3%
35.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.86 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Trelleborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sandviken, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. Sandviken haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandviken by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Trelleborg heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Early Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sandviken have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won 4-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
0
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Sandviken?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Sandviken have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Trelleborg 1-2 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Trelleborg's games and 50% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trelleborg's recent games and 50% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Sandviken tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Sandviken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Sandviken 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.79 xG and Sandviken 0.86 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against Sandviken attack 0.73 / defence 1.42, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 59% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 17%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 50%, Sandviken 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Trelleborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trelleborg conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.