Trelleborg 1-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Orebro SK meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trelleborg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trelleborg's home record at Vångavallen: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Orebro SK arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Trelleborg, 0 for Orebro SK and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 41% versus Orebro SK 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 44% | Orebro SK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.41 xG and Orebro SK 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.706 / defence 0.976 | Orebro SK attack 1.186 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.208. Trelleborg's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Trelleborg games / 59 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 37% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 37%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Orebro SK 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Trelleborg dominate the H2H record, yet Orebro SK are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 40% | Orebro SK 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 37% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Trelleborg 1.41 / Orebro SK 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.706 / def 0.976 | Orebro SK attack 1.186 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Orebro SK xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Orebro SK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Trelleborg 1 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK part of?
Trelleborg vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 37% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Trelleborg and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
Record (7 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 5 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Orebro SK in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (1.19x) against Trelleborg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.78
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.81
1.40
Orebro SK xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.40 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 12D 30L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.02 PPG from 59 outings (14W 18D 27L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.02 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trelleborg's home form reads 10W 9D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.59 points per game from 29 outings (3W 8D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.27 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK in 66%.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 17W 12D 30L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 18D 27L in their last 59 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Orebro SK away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.34 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
6
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Orebro SK have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 41%, Orebro SK 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Trelleborg) and 66% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Trelleborg have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Trelleborg's games and 76% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Trelleborg's recent games and 66% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg and Orebro SK finished level at 1-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.41 xG and Orebro SK 1.40 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Orebro SK attack 1.19 / defence 1.30, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 37% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 37%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 44%, Orebro SK 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.07 PPG, Orebro SK 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.