Trelleborg 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vångavallen plays host to Trelleborg versus IF Brommapojkarna in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Trelleborg's home record at Vångavallen: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, IF Brommapojkarna are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, IF Brommapojkarna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Trelleborg 0W, IF Brommapojkarna 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–4 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
IF Brommapojkarna — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 71% and IF Brommapojkarna 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trelleborg 71% | IF Brommapojkarna 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.55 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.015 / defence 1.227 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.143 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.271. Data: 58 Trelleborg games / 28 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 33% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 42%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 80% | IF Brommapojkarna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 33% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Trelleborg 1.55 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.015 / def 1.227 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.143 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.78
IF Brommapojkarna xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Trelleborg 1 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 33% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Trelleborg and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Trelleborg's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (1.14x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
33%
3.07
25%
3.97
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
3.33
1.78
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
5%
18.30
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.78 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trelleborg come into this having played 28 games, going 12W 6D 10L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (17W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
IF Brommapojkarna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Trelleborg's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.50 points per game from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Brommapojkarna's season.
Attack vs Defence
Trelleborg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 2.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; IF Brommapojkarna in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 12W 6D 10L in their last 28 games (1.50 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 5D 6L in their last 28 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.71 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trelleborg
0
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 2 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2022, when Trelleborg 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Trelleborg, 64% for IF Brommapojkarna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Trelleborg and 57% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Trelleborg's games and 64% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Trelleborg's matches and 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Trelleborg and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out Trelleborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Trelleborg 1-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.55 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.78 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 33% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 42%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 71%, IF Brommapojkarna 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.