Trelleborg 1-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 16 as Trelleborg welcome Gais to Vångavallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vångavallen, Trelleborg have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Gais have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gais have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Trelleborg have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 1, Gais 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2021, ended 3–2 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Gais in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 60% versus Gais 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Trelleborg 40% | Gais 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.05 xG and Gais 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.986 / defence 0.964 | Gais attack 0.605 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.063. Data: 15 Trelleborg games / 15 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 45% | Draw 33% | Gais 21%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Gais 4.76. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Gais's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 57% | Gais 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 45% | Draw 33% | Gais 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Trelleborg 1.05 / Gais 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.986 / def 0.964 | Gais attack 0.605 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Gais xG
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Gais kick off?
Trelleborg vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Gais?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Gais.
Where is Trelleborg vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Gais part of?
Trelleborg vs Gais is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 45% chance of winning, Gais a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Trelleborg and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 0 | Gais 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Gais in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Gais (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.99) and Gais's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.2%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
45%
2.20
33%
3.01
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
1.67
0.62
Gais xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.33
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.62 for Gais, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 7W 5D 3L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais's form line: 5W 2D 8L from 15 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trelleborg are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gais.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
On the road, Gais have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 0.87 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Gais in 27%.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Gais in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Gais have gone 5W 2D 8L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Gais away?
Trelleborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gais in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Gais runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2023, when Gais won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
0
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Gais have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Trelleborg 0-6 Gais.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gais tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Trelleborg 57% BTTS, Gais 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Trelleborg and 0% for Gais.
On the defensive side: Gais in 43%; Gais in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 0% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Trelleborg's recent games and 0% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Gais tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Gais in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Gais 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Gais 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.05 xG and Gais 0.62 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Gais attack 0.60 / defence 0.95, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 45% | Draw 33% | Gais 21%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 40%, Gais 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gais's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.