Sandviken 2-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 35%, yet in-form Trelleborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandviken vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Jernvallen to face Sandviken in Superettan (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Sandviken (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sandviken at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sandviken are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Trelleborg have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trelleborg are 0.70 PPG clear of Sandviken over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Sandviken 4–0 Trelleborg — a Sandviken win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sandviken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 57% versus Trelleborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 67% | Trelleborg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.02 xG and Trelleborg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.956 / defence 0.839 | Trelleborg attack 0.941 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.282. Data: built from Sandviken's last 32 games and Trelleborg's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sandviken 35% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.86 | Draw 3.27 | Trelleborg 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandviken are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trelleborg (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Sandviken's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandviken 50% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Sandviken 32 games, Trelleborg 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 3 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 35% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Sandviken 1.02 / Trelleborg 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.956 / def 0.839 | Trelleborg attack 0.941 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Trelleborg xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandviken vs Trelleborg FAQs
What time does Sandviken vs Trelleborg kick off?
Sandviken vs Trelleborg kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Sandviken 2 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Sandviken vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Trelleborg part of?
Sandviken vs Trelleborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 3) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 35% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sandviken and Trelleborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Sandviken vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 0.96x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.94x) against Sandviken's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Sandviken's last 32 games and Trelleborg's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.27
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.03
1.01
Trelleborg xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandviken vs Trelleborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.01 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sandviken come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 7D 11L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (12W 6D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Sandviken against 1.40 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sandviken's home form reads 9W 2D 4L across their last 15 home games, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 15 away games (5W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandviken are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.10 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
Sandviken (Home) vs Trelleborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandviken
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Sandviken vs Trelleborg Form FAQs
What form are Sandviken and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Trelleborg away?
Sandviken's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.93 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Sandviken or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 14 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Sandviken have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won Sandviken 4-0 Trelleborg on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sandviken
0
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandviken vs Trelleborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Trelleborg?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandviken have won 3, Trelleborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Trelleborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2025: Trelleborg 1-2 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Trelleborg?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 53%, Trelleborg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sandviken) and 47% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Trelleborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandviken vs Trelleborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandviken and Trelleborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sandviken's recent matches and 33% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sandviken and Trelleborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sandviken's matches and 47% of Trelleborg's.
Do Sandviken and Trelleborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Sandviken's recent matches and 87% of Trelleborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.02 xG and Trelleborg 1.01 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Trelleborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 35% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 34%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 67%, Trelleborg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.43 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.