Sandviken 3-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandviken at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 26 as Sandviken welcome Ostersunds FK to Arena Jernvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Sandviken have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Arena Jernvallen this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Sandviken are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sandviken, 0 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2024, ended 2–0 with Sandviken winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sandviken in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 48% versus Ostersunds FK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 60% | Ostersunds FK 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.73 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.176 / defence 0.889 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.722 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.197. Data: 25 Sandviken games / 55 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 59% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sandviken (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 40% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 59% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Sandviken 1.73 / Ostersunds FK 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.176 / def 0.889 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.722 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Ostersunds FK xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Sandviken 3 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 59% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sandviken and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Ostersunds FK?
Record (1 meetings): Sandviken 1W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are Sandviken and Ostersunds FK in?
Sandviken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandviken's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
59%
1.68
25%
4.01
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.50
0.77
Ostersunds FK xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
3%
36.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.77 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandviken's recent record stands at 11W 6D 8L from 25 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 11L across 25 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandviken by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandviken have managed 8W 1D 3L from 12 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ostersunds FK's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandviken are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.96 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 11W 6D 8L in their last 25 games (1.56 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Sandviken's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 2.08 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Sandviken or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2025, when Sandviken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandviken's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sandviken
1
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Ostersunds FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Ostersunds FK?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 42%, Ostersunds FK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sandviken) and 33% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sandviken's recent matches and 42% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sandviken's recent games and 33% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Ostersunds FK 3-1 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.73 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.77 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.10, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 59% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 16%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 60%, Ostersunds FK 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.