Ostersunds FK 0-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK host Varbergs BoIS FC at Jamtkraft Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Jamtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jamtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ostersunds FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Varbergs BoIS FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Ostersunds FK's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Varbergs BoIS FC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 62% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.58 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.244 / defence 1.094 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.288 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.306. Varbergs BoIS FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Ostersunds FK games / 36 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 70% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.58 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.244 / def 1.094 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.288 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 34% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (6 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.24x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
34%
2.98
22%
4.47
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.42
1.84
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
5%
18.79
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.84 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 18D 22L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 0.90 PPG from 60 outings (13W 15D 32L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 14W 10D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.73 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2020, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ostersunds FK at 73%, Varbergs BoIS FC at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Ostersunds FK and 63% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ostersunds FK's games and 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 63% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Ostersunds FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Ostersunds FK 0-1 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.58 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.84 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.24 / defence 1.09 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 44%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.