Ostersunds FK 2-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 23 as Ostersunds FK welcome Orebro SK to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.20 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Orebro SK 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Orebro SK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 48% versus Orebro SK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 52% | Orebro SK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.32 xG and Orebro SK 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.956 / defence 1.311 | Orebro SK attack 0.827 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.351. Data: 22 Ostersunds FK games / 22 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 39%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Orebro SK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 70% | Orebro SK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.32 / Orebro SK 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.956 / def 1.311 | Orebro SK attack 0.827 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Orebro SK xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 33% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
Record (2 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.96x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.60
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.79
1.47
Orebro SK xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.47 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 6W 12D 34L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 12W 10D 30L from 52 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 0.58 PPG, Orebro SK on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.84 PPG from 25 outings (5W 6D 14L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 5W 4D 16L from 25 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.87 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 12D 34L in their last 52 games (0.58 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 12W 10D 30L in their last 52 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Orebro SK away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (0.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.84 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
4
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, Orebro SK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 3-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 56%, Orebro SK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ostersunds FK) and 56% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 32% of games; Orebro SK in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 44% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 56% of Orebro SK's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Orebro SK 2-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.32 xG and Orebro SK 1.47 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against Orebro SK attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 39%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 52%, Orebro SK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 0.58 PPG, Orebro SK 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.