Ostersunds FK 3-2 Lund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Lund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lund travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK in Superettan (Relegation Round). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ostersunds FK have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lund — last 1 games: 0W 0D 1L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Lund 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2024, ended Ostersunds FK 2–0 Lund — a Ostersunds FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.48 xG and Lund 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.893 / defence 1.009 | Lund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.194. Data: built from Ostersunds FK's last 60 games and Lund's last 0.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 47% | Draw 28% | Lund 25%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.15 | Draw 3.52 | Lund 3.99. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and Lund's last 1 games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Lund | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 47% | Draw 28% | Lund 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Ostersunds FK 1.48 / Lund 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.893 / def 1.009 | Lund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lund xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Lund FAQs
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Lund kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Lund kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Ostersunds FK 3 - 2 Lund.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Lund being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Lund part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Lund is a Superettan fixture (Relegation Round) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 47% chance of winning, Lund a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Lund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ostersunds FK vs Lund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lund's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lund's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ostersunds FK's last 60 games and Lund's last 0 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.52
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.50
1.02
Lund xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Lund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Lund expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.02 for Lund, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W.
On the other side, Lund sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Lund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Lund are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Lund in 0%.
Defensively: Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Early Season
Lund
Early Season
Ostersunds FK (Home) vs Lund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ostersunds FK
Early Season
Lund
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Lund Form FAQs
What form are Ostersunds FK and Lund in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Lund have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Ostersunds FK or Lund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Lund in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 24 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
0
Lund
Recent Meetings
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Lund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Lund?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Lund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Lund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 November 2024: Ostersunds FK 3-2 Lund.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Lund?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Lund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Lund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ostersunds FK and Lund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 0% of Lund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ostersunds FK and Lund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 0% of Lund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Lund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 100% of Lund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Lund 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Lund 3-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.48 xG and Lund 1.02 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lund outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Lund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 47% | Draw 28% | Lund 25%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 0%, Lund 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ostersunds FK scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lund scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.