Ostersunds FK vs IK brage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees IK brage travel to Jamtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Thursday 10 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jamtkraft Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IK brage — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IK brage have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Ostersunds FK, 4 for IK brage and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 4–2 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
IK brage trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 51% versus IK brage 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 45% | IK brage 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.66 xG and IK brage 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.906 / defence 0.770 | IK brage attack 0.876 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.316. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ostersunds FK's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Ostersunds FK games / 51 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 54% | Draw 27% | IK brage 19%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | IK brage 5.26. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 50% | IK brage 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 54% | Draw 27% | IK brage 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.66 / IK brage 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.906 / def 0.770 | IK brage attack 0.876 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.89
IK brage xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IK brage kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 10 September 2026 at Jamtkraft Arena.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 54% chance of winning, IK brage a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IK brage?
Record (9 meetings): Ostersunds FK 4W | Draws 1 | IK brage 4W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IK brage in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.73
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.54
0.89
IK brage xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
4%
27.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.89 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 17D 16L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 16W 13D 22L from 51 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.39 PPG, IK brage on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.84 PPG from 25 outings (13W 7D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IK brage have gone 9W 6D 10L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.65 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 17D 16L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while IK brage have gone 16W 13D 22L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IK brage away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.84 PPG; IK brage away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, IK brage have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when IK brage 2-4 Ostersunds FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 60%, IK brage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ostersunds FK and 60% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IK brage in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 48% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 60% of IK brage's.
Do Ostersunds FK and IK brage tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, IK brage in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.