Ostersunds FK 0-2 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jamtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus IFK Norrkoping in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 21 June 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jamtkraft Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. IFK Norrkoping haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IFK Norrkoping in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
IFK Norrkoping hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IFK Norrkoping have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
IFK Norrkoping goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus IFK Norrkoping 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | IFK Norrkoping 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.27 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.165 / defence 1.097 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.833 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.434. IFK Norrkoping's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Ostersunds FK games / 12 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 36% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 38%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Norrkoping 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 36% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.27 / IFK Norrkoping 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.165 / def 1.097 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.833 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.31
IFK Norrkoping xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 June 2026 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 2 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 36% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (4 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Norrkoping 3W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.83x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
36%
2.78
26%
3.78
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.59
1.31
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.31 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 14L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. IFK Norrkoping haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.13 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.20 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.67 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 21 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
IFK Norrkoping go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Norrkoping won 3-0 on 29 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
4
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping?
From 5 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, IFK Norrkoping have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 21 June 2026, when Ostersunds FK 0-2 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ostersunds FK, 80% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Ostersunds FK and 67% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ostersunds FK's games and 80% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Ostersunds FK 0-2 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.27 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.31 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.17 / defence 1.10 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.83 / defence 0.75, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 36% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 38%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.20 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.