Osters IF 1-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 4 as Osters IF welcome Vasteras SK FK to Visma Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Osters IF, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 43% versus Vasteras SK FK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osters IF 30% | Vasteras SK FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.41 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.974 / defence 0.996 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.917 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.379. Data: 33 Osters IF games / 33 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 40% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 34%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 40% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 40% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Osters IF 1.41 / Vasteras SK FK 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.974 / def 0.996 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.917 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vasteras SK FK xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Osters IF 1 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 40% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (2 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 2 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 0.97x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
40%
2.47
26%
3.86
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.67
1.26
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.26 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osters IF's recent record stands at 12W 10D 8L from 30 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 10L across 30 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.53 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 8W 5D 2L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.20 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 games (1.53 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Osters IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.93 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Osters IF
5
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2023, when Osters IF 2-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 47%, Vasteras SK FK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Osters IF and 33% for Vasteras SK FK.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 33%; Osters IF have failed to score in 27% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osters IF's recent matches and 47% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Osters IF's recent games and 33% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF and Vasteras SK FK finished level at 1-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.41 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.26 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 40% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 34%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 30%, Vasteras SK FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.53 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.