Osters IF 1-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osters IF and Ostersunds FK meet at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Visma Arena, Osters IF have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Ostersunds FK (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Osters IF 2W, Ostersunds FK 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Osters IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 66% and Ostersunds FK 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 63% | Ostersunds FK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.51 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.120 / defence 0.744 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.810 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.048. Osters IF's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Osters IF games / 41 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 59% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Ostersunds FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 40% | Ostersunds FK 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 59% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 36% | xG Osters IF 1.51 / Ostersunds FK 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.120 / def 0.744 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.810 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Ostersunds FK xG
36%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Osters IF 1 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 59% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Osters IF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Ostersunds FK?
Record (4 meetings): Osters IF 2W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Ostersunds FK in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.12x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.81x) against Osters IF's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
59%
1.71
26%
3.85
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.14
0.63
Ostersunds FK xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
3%
29.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.63 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 29W 15D 18L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 18W 23D 21L from 62 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.74 PPG from 31 outings (16W 6D 9L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 12D 13L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 29W 15D 18L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 23D 21L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Osters IF's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.74 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osters IF
3
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Ostersunds FK?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 58%, Ostersunds FK 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Osters IF) and 36% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Osters IF's games and 55% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Osters IF's recent games and 36% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF and Ostersunds FK finished level at 1-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.51 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.63 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.12 / defence 0.74 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 59% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 16%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 63%, Ostersunds FK 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.