Osters IF 1-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osters IF and Orgryte IS meet at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Osters IF (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Osters IF against 1.70 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Osters IF, who have won 3 of the last 7 meetings against Orgryte IS — a 4D 0W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Osters IF a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 60% versus Orgryte IS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 60% | Orgryte IS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.58 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.061 / defence 0.800 | Orgryte IS attack 1.098 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.184. Data: 48 Osters IF games / 48 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 49% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 24%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 4.17. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 30% | Orgryte IS 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 49% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Osters IF 1.58 / Orgryte IS 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.061 / def 0.800 | Orgryte IS attack 1.098 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Osters IF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Osters IF 1 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Osters IF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Osters IF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 49% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Osters IF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orgryte IS?
Record (7 meetings): Osters IF 3W | Draws 4 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Osters IF and Orgryte IS in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (1.06) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (1.10x) against Osters IF's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.68
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.62
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
5%
20.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.04 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osters IF's recent record stands at 24W 12D 12L from 48 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 21L across 48 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osters IF by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orgryte IS heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 13W 5D 5L from 23 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 8W 4D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Osters IF are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.29 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 games (1.75 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Osters IF's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.91 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Osters IF
4
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Osters IF 1-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Orgryte IS?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 39%, Orgryte IS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Osters IF) and 48% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 30%; Orgryte IS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Osters IF's recent matches and 52% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Osters IF's recent games and 48% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Orgryte IS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Orgryte IS 1-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.58 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Orgryte IS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Orgryte IS attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 49% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 24%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 60%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.