Osters IF 2-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visma Arena plays host to Osters IF versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Jonkopings Sodra (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Osters IF's favour (2.20 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osters IF lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 43% versus Jonkopings Sodra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osters IF 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.52 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.943 / defence 1.071 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.031 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.369. Data: 39 Osters IF games / 39 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 37% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 37%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.70. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 40% | Jonkopings Sodra 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 37% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Osters IF 1.52 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.943 / def 1.071 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.031 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Jonkopings Sodra xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Osters IF 2 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 37% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (2 meetings): Osters IF 1W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 0.94x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (1.03x) against Osters IF's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.74
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Osters IF xG
Total xG
3.03
1.51
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.51 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osters IF come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 10D 8L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Jonkopings Sodra sit at 1.27 PPG from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Osters IF against 1.27 for Jonkopings Sodra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Osters IF's home form reads 8W 5D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Jonkopings Sodra have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.13 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 games (1.53 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Osters IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.93 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osters IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 4-0 on 29 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Osters IF
0
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Osters IF 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 47%, Jonkopings Sodra 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Osters IF) and 40% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Osters IF have failed to score in 27% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osters IF's recent matches and 47% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Osters IF's recent games and 40% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.52 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.51 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 37% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 37%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 30%, Jonkopings Sodra 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.53 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.