Osters IF 4-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osters IF at 42%, yet in-form IF Brommapojkarna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees IF Brommapojkarna travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 October 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Visma Arena, Osters IF have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. IF Brommapojkarna's 2.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Osters IF's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osters IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Osters IF, 0 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 67% and IF Brommapojkarna 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 54% | IF Brommapojkarna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.60 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.106 / defence 1.037 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.038 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.283. Data: 54 Osters IF games / 24 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 42% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 32%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Brommapojkarna (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 70% | IF Brommapojkarna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 42% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Osters IF 1.60 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.106 / def 1.037 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.038 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.38
IF Brommapojkarna xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Osters IF 4 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 42% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (1 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Osters IF's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.90
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.98
1.38
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.38 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osters IF come into this having played 24 games, going 11W 7D 6L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 2.08 PPG from 24 outings (15W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Osters IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Osters IF's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.64 points per game from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Brommapojkarna's season.
The Goals Picture
Osters IF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 2.17 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; IF Brommapojkarna in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 11W 7D 6L in their last 24 games (1.67 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 15W 5D 4L in their last 24 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Osters IF's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.82 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2022, when Osters IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Osters IF
2
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 4 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 1, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Osters IF 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Osters IF at 73%, IF Brommapojkarna at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Osters IF) and 46% (IF Brommapojkarna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Osters IF's games and 64% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Osters IF's recent games and 46% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 4-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.60 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.38 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 42% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 32%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 54%, IF Brommapojkarna 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Osters IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.