Osters IF 2-1 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Akropolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osters IF host Akropolis at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF's home record at Visma Arena: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Akropolis — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Akropolis have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Osters IF have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Osters IF have won 0, Akropolis 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Akropolis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Akropolis in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 41% versus Akropolis 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osters IF 28% | Akropolis 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.48 xG and Akropolis 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.952 / defence 0.880 | Akropolis attack 0.712 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.233. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Osters IF games / 29 Akropolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 53% | Draw 28% | Akropolis 19%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Akropolis 5.26. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 30% | Akropolis 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 53% | Draw 28% | Akropolis 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Osters IF 1.48 / Akropolis 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.952 / def 0.880 | Akropolis attack 0.712 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Akropolis xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Akropolis kick off?
Osters IF vs Akropolis kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Akropolis?
Osters IF 2 - 1 Akropolis.
Where is Osters IF vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Akropolis part of?
Osters IF vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 53% chance of winning, Akropolis a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Osters IF and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Akropolis?
Record (1 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 0 | Akropolis 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Akropolis in?
Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Akropolis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.95) and Akropolis's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akropolis's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.52
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.25
0.77
Akropolis xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.77 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Akropolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 11W 10D 8L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Akropolis's form line: 9W 8D 12L from 29 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.48 PPG, Akropolis on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L).
On the road, Akropolis have gone 3W 4D 7L from 14 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osters IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Akropolis are on 0.93 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Akropolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Akropolis in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 11W 10D 8L in their last 29 games (1.48 PPG), while Akropolis have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Akropolis away?
Osters IF's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.86 PPG; Akropolis away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Akropolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Akropolis in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osters IF and Akropolis runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Osters IF
0
Draws
1
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 1, Akropolis have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when Osters IF 2-1 Akropolis.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 43%, Akropolis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Osters IF) and 43% (Akropolis).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Osters IF have failed to score in 29% of games; Akropolis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Akropolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Osters IF's recent matches and 50% of Akropolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Akropolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Osters IF's recent games and 43% of Akropolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Akropolis tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Akropolis in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Akropolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Akropolis 2-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.48 xG and Akropolis 0.77 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.95 / defence 0.88 against Akropolis attack 0.71 / defence 1.40, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 53% | Draw 28% | Akropolis 19%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 28%, Akropolis 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Akropolis's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.48 PPG, Akropolis 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.