Orgryte IS 3-1 Umeå FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Umeå FC travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 September 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 6W 3D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, Umeå FC have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Umeå FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Umeå FC have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Orgryte IS are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Orgryte IS have won 0, Umeå FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Umeå FC in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 62% versus Umeå FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 67% | Umeå FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.48 xG and Umeå FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.362 / defence 0.848 | Umeå FC attack 0.880 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.219. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Umeå FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Orgryte IS games / 21 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 71% | Draw 17% | Umeå FC 11%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Umeå FC 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 30% | Umeå FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 15 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 71% | Draw 17% | Umeå FC 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 55% | xG Orgryte IS 2.48 / Umeå FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.362 / def 0.848 | Umeå FC attack 0.880 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Umeå FC xG
55%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 September 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC?
Orgryte IS 3 - 1 Umeå FC.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC part of?
Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 71% chance of winning, Umeå FC a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Orgryte IS and Umeå FC will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Umeå FC?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 1 | Umeå FC 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Umeå FC in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Umeå FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Umeå FC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. The same calculation in reverse, Umeå FC's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
71%
1.40
17%
5.74
11%
8.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.39
0.91
Umeå FC xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
8.83
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
8%
11.95
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
1%
105.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Umeå FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.91 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 12W 6D 3L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Umeå FC's form line: 1W 6D 14L from 21 games, 0.43 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Umeå FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 1.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Umeå FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L).
On the road, Umeå FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Umeå FC are on 0.76 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Umeå FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Umeå FC in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 12W 6D 3L in their last 21 games (2.00 PPG), while Umeå FC have gone 1W 6D 14L in their last 21 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Umeå FC away?
Orgryte IS's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 2.10 PPG; Umeå FC away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Umeå FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Umeå FC in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 15 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
0
Umeå FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Umeå FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Umeå FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Umeå FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2025, when Orgryte IS 3-1 Umeå FC.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Umeå FC?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Umeå FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 30%, Umeå FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Orgryte IS) and 50% (Umeå FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 30% of games; Umeå FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Umeå FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Umeå FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 50% of Umeå FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Umeå FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Orgryte IS's matches and 50% of Umeå FC's.
Do Orgryte IS and Umeå FC tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Umeå FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Umeå FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Umeå FC 3-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.48 xG and Umeå FC 0.91 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.36 / defence 0.85 against Umeå FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 71% | Draw 17% | Umeå FC 11%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 67%, Umeå FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Umeå FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Umeå FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.