Orgryte IS 1-2 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK meet at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orgryte IS have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Skövde AIK (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Orgryte IS's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Skövde AIK's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Skövde AIK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Skövde AIK half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 57% versus Skövde AIK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Skövde AIK 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.74 xG and Skövde AIK 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.927 / defence 1.080 | Skövde AIK attack 0.632 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.213. Skövde AIK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Orgryte IS games / 47 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 58% | Draw 25% | Skövde AIK 17%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Skövde AIK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 70% | Skövde AIK 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 14 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 58% | Draw 25% | Skövde AIK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Orgryte IS 1.74 / Skövde AIK 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.927 / def 1.080 | Skövde AIK attack 0.632 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Skövde AIK xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 August 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Orgryte IS 1 - 2 Skövde AIK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 58% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | Skövde AIK 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (0.93) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Skövde AIK's attack (0.63x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.94
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.57
0.83
Skövde AIK xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
34.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.83 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 13W 16D 18L from 47 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 19L across 47 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.15 for Skövde AIK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 6W 9D 8L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.11 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Skövde AIK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.17 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Orgryte IS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 3-0 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Skövde AIK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
3
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Skövde AIK have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-2 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 56%, Skövde AIK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Orgryte IS) and 56% (Skövde AIK).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 26% of games; Skövde AIK in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Skövde AIK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 48% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 56% of Skövde AIK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Skövde AIK defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Orgryte IS 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.74 xG and Skövde AIK 0.83 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Skövde AIK outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Skövde AIK attack 0.63 / defence 1.34, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 58% | Draw 25% | Skövde AIK 17%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Skövde AIK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, Skövde AIK 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.17 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.