Orgryte IS 4-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Sandviken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Sandviken travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 21 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Orgryte IS have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sandviken's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Orgryte IS are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Orgryte IS, 2 for Sandviken and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 4–2 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sandviken in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 70% and Sandviken 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 60% | Sandviken 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.55 xG and Sandviken 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.570 / defence 0.846 | Sandviken attack 0.952 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.284. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.570 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Orgryte IS games / 38 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 70% | Draw 17% | Sandviken 13%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Sandviken 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Sandviken 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 70% | Draw 17% | Sandviken 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 59% | xG Orgryte IS 2.55 / Sandviken 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.570 / def 0.846 | Sandviken attack 0.952 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sandviken xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Sandviken kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Sandviken kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 21 May 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Orgryte IS 4 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Sandviken part of?
Orgryte IS vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 70% chance of winning, Sandviken a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Orgryte IS and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Sandviken?
Record (4 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Sandviken in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sandviken (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.57x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
70%
1.43
17%
6.02
13%
7.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.58
1.03
Sandviken xG
1.43
70%
Home win
6.02
17%
Draw
7.52
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
8%
12.78
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
1%
96.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.03 for Sandviken, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 12W 8D 10L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Sandviken's form line: 12W 7D 11L from 30 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.47 PPG, Sandviken on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
On the road, Sandviken have gone 3W 5D 7L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandviken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.63 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Sandviken away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.60 PPG; Sandviken away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
2
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Sandviken?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Sandviken have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Sandviken 1-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Sandviken?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Orgryte IS at 80%, Sandviken at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Orgryte IS and 67% for Sandviken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Orgryte IS's games and 60% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Orgryte IS's matches and 67% of Sandviken's.
Do Orgryte IS and Sandviken tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sandviken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Sandviken 4-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.55 xG and Sandviken 1.03 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandviken landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.57 / defence 0.85 against Sandviken attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 70% | Draw 17% | Sandviken 13%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 60%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.47 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.