Orgryte IS 0-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Osters IF at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Osters IF encounter.

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Full Analysis

Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 18 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Osters IF have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Osters IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Osters IF arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Orgryte IS, 1 for Osters IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 67% versus Osters IF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Orgryte IS 47% | Osters IF 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.39 xG and Osters IF 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.073 / defence 1.077 | Osters IF attack 1.142 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.417. Data: 32 Orgryte IS games / 32 Osters IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 31% | Draw 23% | Osters IF 46%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Osters IF 2.17. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 90% | Osters IF 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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