Orgryte IS 2-2 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 August 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.10 (AFC Eskilstuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Orgryte IS, 2 for AFC Eskilstuna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 3–4 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 65% and AFC Eskilstuna 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 48% | AFC Eskilstuna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.63 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.916 / defence 1.060 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.101 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.291. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Orgryte IS games / 46 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 35%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | AFC Eskilstuna 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | AFC Eskilstuna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Orgryte IS 1.63 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.916 / def 1.060 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.101 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.51
AFC Eskilstuna xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 40% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 1 | AFC Eskilstuna 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (0.92) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
40%
2.50
25%
3.95
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.14
1.51
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.51 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 11W 21D 14L from 46 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 18L across 46 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.17 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 5W 13D 4L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 5W 4D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.61 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 11W 21D 14L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.27 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jul 2021, when AFC Eskilstuna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
2
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Orgryte IS at 68%, AFC Eskilstuna at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Orgryte IS) and 59% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Orgryte IS's games and 64% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 59% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 17, as Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.63 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.51 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.10 / defence 1.25, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 35%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 48%, AFC Eskilstuna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.17 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.